شناسایی کلان‌روندها و آینده‌پژوهی نظام مالیاتی ایران با رویکرد تحلیل لایه‌ایی و سناریوپردازی: از منظر علم و فناوری

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی دکتری، گروه حسابداری، واحد گرگان، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، گرگان، ایران

2 دانشیار، گروه حسابداری، واحد گرگان، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، گرگان، ایران

3 دانشیار، گروه حسابداری ، واحد علی آباد کتول، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، علی آباد کتول، ایران

10.30473/gaa.2025.72073.1752

چکیده

وصول سریع، کم هزینه و ثبات درآمدهای مالیاتی، سبب روی آوردن کشورها به این گونه از درآمدها به عنوان یک درآمد اصلی و پایدار بوده است، در این تحقیق شناسایی کلان روندها و آینده‌پژوهی نظام مالیاتی ایران از منظر علم و فناوری به عنوان یک اولویت اساسی در برنامه ریزی، سیاستگزاری و تصمیم گیری های حوزه مالیاتی مبتنی بر پیشران های آینده ساز تاثیرگذار بر حوزه نظام مالیاتی مورد بررسی قرار می‌ گیرد.روش جمع آوری داده از نوع توصیفی-پیمایشی و برمبنای نوع داده ترکیبی و پیشران های آینده ساز تاثیرگذار بر حوزه نظام مالیاتی ایران در 20 سال آینده با استفاده از روشهای پانل خبرگان, پرسشنامه باز، مصاحبه و دلفی فازی در سال 1402 شناسایی شدند.برای انتخاب خبرگان از استادان و دانشجویان دکتری حسابداری،کارکنان سازمان امور مالیاتی و ... ازروش نمونه گیری قضاوتی و گلوله برفی استفاده گردید. توسعه نرم افزارها وسیستمهای حسابداری هوشمند،هوشمندی کسب وکاروگسترش فناوریهای شخصی مهم‌ترین پیشران تأثیرگذاردرآینده هستندونیزافزایش چالشهای امنیت سایبری درکسب وکاروگسترش کاربردعلوم و فناوریهای نوین درکسب و کاربایدموردتوجه جدی قرارگیرد.نتایج پژوهش حاضر می تواند به تدوین رهنمودهایی دراستفاده ازفناوری‌های نوین که موجب کاهش چالش‌های امنیت سایبری و تسهیل فرآیندهای مالیاتی و تقویت بهره برداری از علم و فناوری با هدف بهبود دقت،شفافیت و کارایی فرآیندهای مالیاتی و کمک به تحول نظام در مالیاتی در ایران منتج شود.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات

عنوان مقاله [English]

Identification of macro trends and future research of Iran's tax system with Causal Layered Analysis and Scenario planning Approach: from the perspective of science and technology

نویسندگان [English]

  • Reza Jafari 1
  • Mansoor Garkaz 2
  • alireza matoufi 2
  • Ali Khozain 3
1 PhD Student, Department of Accounting, Gorgan Branch, Islamic Azad University, Gorgan, Iran
2 Associate Professor, Department of Accounting, Gorgan Branch, Islamic Azad University, Gorgan, Iran
3 Associate Professor, Department of Accounting, Ali abadKatoul Branch, Islamic Azad University, Ali abadKatoul, Iran
چکیده [English]

Fast collection, low cost and stability of tax revenues have caused countries to turn to this type of income as a main and stable income. In this research, the identification of the macro trends and future research of Iran's tax system from the perspective of science and technology as a basic priority in planning, policy-making and decisions in the tax field based on the future-making drivers affecting the tax system is examined. The data collection method is descriptive-survey type and based on the type of combined data and the future-shaping drivers affecting the field of Iran's tax system in the next 20 years were identified using expert panel methods, open questionnaire, interview and fuzzy Delphi in 1402. To select experts from professors and PhD students of accounting, employees of the Tax Affairs Organization, judgmental and snowball sampling methods were used. The development of intelligent accounting software and systems, business intelligence, and the expansion of personal technologies are the most important influential drivers in the future, and the increase in cybersecurity challenges in business and the expansion of the application of new sciences and technologies in business should be given serious attention. The results of the present study can lead to the development of guidelines for the use of new technologies that will reduce cybersecurity challenges, facilitate tax processes, and strengthen the exploitation of science and technology with the aim of improving the accuracy, transparency, and efficiency of tax processes and contributing to the transformation of the tax system in Iran,

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Foresight
  • Megatrends
  • Causal Layered Analysis
  • Taxation System
  • Driving Forces

مراجع

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سابقه مقاله

  • تاریخ دریافت: 24 مرداد 1403
  • تاریخ بازنگری: 27 بهمن 1403
  • تاریخ پذیرش: 03 اسفند 1403

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