بررسی عوامل تاثیرگذار بر کسری بودجه دولت در ایران با تاکید بر ابزار مالی اسلامی و نرخ ارز (رهیافت ARDL)

رحیم‌زاده, اشکان; بیات, علی

doi:10.30473/gaa.2024.69496.1688

بررسی عوامل تاثیرگذار بر کسری بودجه دولت در ایران با تاکید بر ابزار مالی اسلامی و نرخ ارز (رهیافت ARDL)

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

¹ هیات علمی دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی زنجان

² گروه حسابداری، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، واحد زنجان.

10.30473/gaa.2024.69496.1688

چکیده

موضوع و هدف پژوهش: تأمین مالی کسری بودجه از طریق استقراض از بانک مرکزی آثار منفی تورمی به‌همراه داشته و استفاده اوراق بهادار اسلامی در جهت تقلیل کسری بودجه مطرح می‌شود. هدف اصلی تحقیق بررسی تأثیر ابزار مالی اسلامی، نرخ ارز، هزینه‌های جاری دولت و سرمایه‌گذاری بر کسری بودجه در ایران می‌باشد.
روش‌شناسی پژوهش: این تحقیق از حیث هدف کاربردی و ازنظر گردآوری داده‌ها توصیفی- علی می‌باشد. اطلاعات متغیرها از بانک مرکزی طی دوره زمانی 1399-1383 بصورت فصلی بوده و در برآورد موردنظر با نرم‌افزار EViews 9، رهیافت ARDL استفاده‌ شده است.
یافته‌ها: برآورد بلندمدت نشان می‌دهد که نرخ ارز تأثیر منفی ناچیز بر کسری بودجه ایجاد نموده است. نسبت فروش اوراق مشارکت به GDP واقعی کسری بودجه را کاهش می‌دهد و نسبت سرمایه‌گذاری بهGDP واقعی تأثیر معنی‌داری بر متغیر وابسته ایجاد ننموده است. همچنین رشد هزینه‌های جاری دولت، کسری بودجه را افزایش می‌دهد.
نتیجه‌گیری، اصالت و افزوده آن به دانش: اوراق مالی برای ایجاد تأثیر معنی‌دار بر کسری بودجه باید افزایش تولید را موجب گردد. این مساله از طریق پیوند هرچه بیشتر بخش مالی و بخش حقیقی اقتصاد صورت می‌پذیرد. بهبود کسری بودجه از کانال صادرات زمانی رخ می‌دهد که توان تولیدی و رقابتی اقتصاد در حدی مناسب بوده و اقتصاد مبتنی صرف بر خام‌فروشی نباشد.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات

حسابداری دولتی

عنوان مقاله [English]

Investigating the influencing factors on the government budget deficit in Iran with an emphasis on Islamic financial instruments and exchange rates (ARDL approach)

نویسندگان [English]

Ashkan Rahimzadeh ¹
ali bayat ²

¹ Academic staff of Islamic Azad University of Zanjan

² Department of Accounting. Islamic Azad Universuty. Zanjan branch

چکیده [English]

Subject and purpose of the Article: Financing the budget deficit through borrowing from the central bank has negative effects on inflation, and the use of Islamic securities is proposed to reduce the budget deficit. The main purpose of research is to investigate the effect of Islamic financial instruments, exchange rate, current government expenses and investment on the budget deficit in Iran.
Research method: This research is applied in terms of purpose and descriptive-causal in terms of data collection. The information of the variables from the central bank during the period of 2004-2020 was seasonal and the ARDL approach was used in the estimation with EViews 9 software.
Research Findings: The long-term estimation show that the exchange rate has a slight negative effect on the budget deficit. The ratio of bond sales to real GDP reduces the budget deficit, and the ratio of investment to real GDP has not had a significant effect on the dependent variable. Also, the growth of the government's current expenses increases the budget deficit.
Conclusion, originality and its contributions to the knowledge: In order to have a significant effect on the budget deficit, financial bonds should increase production. This issue is done through connecting the financial sector and the real sector of the economy as much as possible. the improvement of the budget deficit from the export channel occurs when the productive and competitive power of the economy is at a suitable level and the economy is not based solely on the sale of raw materials

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

Budget Deficit
Exchange Rate
Investment
Islamic Financial Instrument
Government Current Expenses

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