نقش بانک ها در اثرگذاری سیاست های پولی بر متغیرهای کلان اقتصاد در مدل تعادل عمومی پویای تصادفی

سرگلزایی, مصطفی

doi:10.30473/gaa.2024.70848.1721

نقش بانک ها در اثرگذاری سیاست های پولی بر متغیرهای کلان اقتصاد در مدل تعادل عمومی پویای تصادفی

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسنده

مصطفی سرگلزایی

گروه مالی و بانکداری، دانشکده مدیریت و حسابداری، دانشگاه علامه طباطبایی

10.30473/gaa.2024.70848.1721

چکیده

موضوع و هدف مقاله: یکی از عوامل رشد ریسک در بانک‌ها، سیاست پولی انبساطی نادرست است که منجر به اثرات نامطلوب بر فعالیت‌های اقتصادی و سطح قیمت‌ها می‌شود. در این پژوهش سعی شده است که نقش بانک‌ها در اثرگذاری سیاست‌های پولی بر متغیرهای کلان اقتصادی در اقتصاد ایران مورد بررسی قرار گیرد.
روش پژوهش: برای رسیدن به این هدف و بررسی تأثیر سیاست پولی بر متغیرهای واقعی و سطوح قیمتی در اقتصاد ایران، از مدل تعادل عمومی تصادفی پویا (DSGE) و اطلاعات سیستم بانکی استفاده شده است. مدل مورد بررسی در این مقاله دارای چهار بخش خانوار، بنگاه‌های اقتصادی (که شامل بنگاه‌های تولیدکننده کالای میانی، بنگاه‌های تولیدکننده کالای نهایی مصرفی و سرمایه‌ای و بنگاه‌های امین می‌شود)، بانک و مقام پولی (بانک مرکزی و دولت) می‌باشد.
یافته‌های پژوهش: نتایج بدست آمده نشان می‌دهد که شوک سیاست پولی انبساطی موجب شده است که تولید، تورم، مصرف بخش خصوصی، سرمایه‌گذاری، ارزش خالص در اقتصاد و وام‌دهی افزایش یابد. دیگر نتیجه بدست آمده از مدل مورد بررسی نشان می‌دهد که شوک اعتباری و افزایش قدرت وام‌دهی بانک‌ها موجب افزایش تولید، مصرف بخش خصوصی، سرمایه‌گذاری، ارزش خالص و کل وام و کاهش سطح تورم می‌شود. در آخر نیز، زمانی که به دلیل افزایش تورم و کاهش مصرف و سرمایه‌گذاری، شوکی اتفاق می‌افتد، این شوک موجب افزایش حجم وام میشود در حالی سطح تولید تقریبا ثابت می ماند.

کلیدواژه‌ها

عنوان مقاله [English]

The Role of Banks in the Effect of Monetary Policies on Macroeconomic Variables in the Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) Model

نویسنده [English]

mostafa sargolzaei

, Department of finance and banking, School of Management and Accounting, Allameh Tabataba&rsquo;i University

چکیده [English]

Subject and Purpose of the Article: One of the factors of risk growth in banks is incorrect expansionary monetary policy, which leads to adverse effects on economic activities and price levels. In this research, an attempt has been made to investigate the role of banks in influencing monetary policies on macroeconomic variables in the Iranian economy.
Research Method: To achieve this goal and investigate the effect of monetary policy on real variables and price levels in Iran's economy, the Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) model and banking system information have been used. The model examined in this article has four sectors: households, economic enterprises (which include intermediate goods producers, consumer and capital final goods producers, and trust companies), banks and monetary authorities (central bank and government).
Research Finding: The results show that the expansionary monetary policy shock has caused production, inflation, private sector consumption, investment, net worth in the economy and lending to increase. Another result obtained from the investigated model shows that the credit shock and the increase in the lending power of the banks cause an increase in production, private sector consumption, investment, net worth and total loans and decrease the level of inflation. Finally, when a shock occurs due to an increase in inflation and a decrease in consumption and investment, this shock causes an increase in the volume of loans, while the level of production remains almost constant.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

Bank
Monetary Policies
Risk
Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE)

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