Identification of macro trends and future research of Iran's tax system with Causal Layered Analysis and Scenario planning Approach: from the perspective of science and technology

Document Type : Research Paper

Authors

1 PhD Student, Department of Accounting, Gorgan Branch, Islamic Azad University, Gorgan, Iran

2 Associate Professor, Department of Accounting, Gorgan Branch, Islamic Azad University, Gorgan, Iran

3 Associate Professor, Department of Accounting, Ali abadKatoul Branch, Islamic Azad University, Ali abadKatoul, Iran

10.30473/gaa.2025.72073.1752

Abstract

Fast collection, low cost and stability of tax revenues have caused countries to turn to this type of income as a main and stable income. In this research, the identification of the macro trends and future research of Iran's tax system from the perspective of science and technology as a basic priority in planning, policy-making and decisions in the tax field based on the future-making drivers affecting the tax system is examined. The data collection method is descriptive-survey type and based on the type of combined data and the future-shaping drivers affecting the field of Iran's tax system in the next 20 years were identified using expert panel methods, open questionnaire, interview and fuzzy Delphi in 1402. To select experts from professors and PhD students of accounting, employees of the Tax Affairs Organization, judgmental and snowball sampling methods were used. The development of intelligent accounting software and systems, business intelligence, and the expansion of personal technologies are the most important influential drivers in the future, and the increase in cybersecurity challenges in business and the expansion of the application of new sciences and technologies in business should be given serious attention. The results of the present study can lead to the development of guidelines for the use of new technologies that will reduce cybersecurity challenges, facilitate tax processes, and strengthen the exploitation of science and technology with the aim of improving the accuracy, transparency, and efficiency of tax processes and contributing to the transformation of the tax system in Iran,

Keywords

Main Subjects


Babajani, Jafar; Ghorbanizadeh, Vajeollah & Khonka, Abdolkhaleq. (2020). Foresight in Management Accounting: From the Perspective of Education. Journal of Empirical Accounting Research, 10(1), 77-96. (In Persian).
Babajani, Jafar; Varzideh, Farokh & Khonka, Abdolkhaleq. (2018). Foresight in Management Accounting: From the Perspective of Science and Information Technology. Management Accounting Journal, 11(38), 127-138. (In Persian).
Bodlai, H; Kooshki .J & Akbari, M. (2011). Use of normative scenario-writing and innovative strategic knowledge management in the commercialization of creative ideas in the insurance industry, The 18th National Conference and the 4th International Seminar on Insurance and Development.
Ehresmann, A. C. (2013). A theoretical frame for future studies. On the Horizon, 21(1): 46-53.
Gill, R. (2010). The role of scenarios in strategic foresight, Technolgical Foresight & Social Change, 77(15).
Fateh Rad, Mehdi et al. (2013). Methodological Features of the Transdisciplinary Foresight as an Integrated Meta-Paradigm. Interdisciplinary Studies in the Humanities Quarterly, 6(21), 135-161. (In Persian).
Hassangholipour, T, Zohi, A & Sajedifar, A. (2014). Comprehensive Banking: A Strategic Approach to Customer Orientation in the Banking Industry, Tenth International Conference on Strategic Management.
Imani Barandeq, Mohammad; Piri, Pirouz & Ghorbani, Tofigh. (2016). Examining Factors Affecting the Quality of Taxation in Iran Using a Hierarchical Approach. Journal of Empirical Accounting Research, 6(2), 47-63. (In Persian)
Khonka, Abdolkhaleq. (2018). Foresight in Management Accounting. Doctoral Dissertation, Faculty of Management, Allameh Tabataba'i University.
Kosonen.T and Ropponen. O. (2015). The role of information in tax compliance: Evidence from a natural field experiment. Economics Letters. 129, 18-21.
Kumar, S; & Singh, S. (2020). "Impact of Big Data Analytics on Tax Compliance: A Study of Indian Taxpayers." International Journal of Business Analytics.
Lak, Jamshid; Pourali, Mohammadreza; Mansouri Rad, Hemmat. (2020). Foresight in Accounting Research and Education. Journal of Accounting and Auditing Research, 12(45), 133-146.
Minaei, Hassan. (2013). Foresight and Its Methods. Available at: http://hosseinminaei.blogfa.com/post/53.
Mahmoudi, B. (2010). Statistics and its role in policy making and decisionmaking from the foresight perspective, Strategy Report (123).
Maleki, A. (2006). Scenario-based planning: A way to reduce decision-making problems, Yas Strategy, (8): 73-112.
Ma Mahmoudrtin, B.R. (2000). Matching social needs and technological capabilities: research foresight and the implications for social sciences (paper presented at the OECD workshop on social sciences and innovation) {Z}. Tokyo: United Nations University.
Nazemi, Amir. (2007). Regional Foresight as a Basis for Land Use Planning. Tehran: Aty Negar Think Tank.
Naeimi, Ali & Ghebadi, Farnaz. (2016). Foresight in the Field of Auditing with a Strategic View on the Role of Information Technology. First International Conference on New Research Achievements in Management, Accounting and Economics. (In Persian).
Pedram, Abdolrahim. (2009). Foresight, Methods. Future Studies Center for Defense Sciences Publishing.
Riccardo.V, (2012). Environmental uncertainty, foresight and strategic decision making: An integrated study, Technological Forecasting & Social Change, Elsevier Inc, 79: 436 – 447.
Wendell.B. (2003). Foundations of Futures Studies I: History, Purposes, Knowledge. New Brunswick, NJ: Transaction Publishers.
Wendell, B. (2015). Fundamentals of futurology. Translate by Mostafa Taghavi & Mohsen Mohaghegh (2017), Tehran: Defense Industries Educational and Research Institute.
Zamani Eskandari, Einollah; Mehrbanpour, Mohammadreza & Jahanshad, Azita. (2020). Foresight of Driving Forces in the Field of Education and Research in Iran’s Taxation System - An Economic Approach. Investment Knowledge Journal, 9(6), 371-395. (In Persian).